North Atlantic and North Pacific Storm Trend Outlook (January 2026 - March 2026)
The maritime industry faces shifting storm patterns across the North Pacific and North Atlantic through the first quarter of 2026, with intensified activity in the eastern Atlantic and persistent rough conditions in western Pacific waters.
North Pacific Storm Outlook
The western North Pacific experiences sustained stormy conditions throughout the quarter, with primary activity centered around Japan and the Kamchatka Peninsula in January and February, then expanding to include Hawaiian waters by March. The East China Sea and South China Sea face normal to strong northeast monsoon conditions through the period.
This quarter's forecast shows storm intensity remaining elevated longer than typical seasonal patterns, with severe weather persisting through March rather than tapering in late winter as historical data would suggest.
The mean significant wave height of the past five years (WNI analysis)
- Unit: m
- (Top) January, 2020-2024
- (Middle) February, 2020-2024
- (Bottom) March, 2020-2024
North Pacific, January 2026
Primary storm zones: Western North Pacific, East China Sea to South China Sea, Philippine Sea
Weather conditions:
- Higher-than-normal pressure around the Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands
- Lower-than-normal pressure near the Kamchatka Peninsula and Japan
- Winter pressure patterns intensify around Japan with developing low-pressure systems
- Northeast monsoon strengthens across the East China Sea and South China Sea
Shipping route impacts: Vessels operating near Japan and the Kamchatka Peninsula face increased storm frequency and rough seas. Trans-Pacific routes through these waters require additional weather routing consideration. Strong monsoon conditions create challenging coastal operations across East and Southeast Asian waters.
Monthly sea level pressure anomaly simulation for Jan. 2026 (JMA). ※Yellow indicates higher pressure, and blue indicates lower pressure compared with the normal year. Unit: hPa
North Pacific, February 2026
Primary storm zones: Western North Pacific, South China Sea to Philippine Sea
Weather conditions:
- High pressure extends from eastern Aleutian Islands to western United States
- Continued below-normal pressure from Kamchatka Peninsula to Japan
- Low-pressure systems develop in the western North Pacific
- Northeast monsoon remains normal to slightly stronger than average
Shipping route impacts: Western Pacific routes continue facing severe weather with persistent low-pressure development near Japan. Monsoon activity in the East China Sea and South China Sea maintains challenging conditions for regional shipping operations.
Monthly sea level pressure anomaly simulation for Feb. 2026 (JMA). Unit: hPa
North Pacific, March 2026
Primary storm zones: Western North Pacific, around Philippine Sea, around Hawaii
Weather conditions:
- High pressure persists from eastern Aleutian Islands to Gulf of Alaska
- Lower pressure develops near Japan, Kamchatka Peninsula, and Hawaii
- Storm systems intensify in both Kamchatka and Hawaiian regions
- Northeast monsoon activity follows similar patterns to February
Shipping route impacts: Storm activity expands to mid-Pacific routes around Hawaii while western Pacific conditions remain active. Japan-Kuril shipping lanes continue experiencing rough conditions. The East China Sea and South China Sea face normal to moderately elevated monsoon patterns affecting coastal and regional trade routes.
Monthly sea level pressure anomaly simulation for Mar. 2026 (JMA). Unit: hPa
North Atlantic Storm Outlook
The North Atlantic exhibits a progressive shift toward increased storm activity in the eastern basin throughout the quarter. While January brings elevated conditions to the northeastern Atlantic and Mediterranean, February and March see this pattern intensify and expand, with the Azores High remaining strong through February before weakening in March, allowing more frequent low-pressure systems to impact European waters.
This forecast marks a departure from typical late-winter patterns, which usually see storm activity beginning to moderate by March. Instead, the eastern Atlantic and Mediterranean remain active through the quarter, with conditions in March resembling peak winter rather than early spring patterns.
The mean significant wave height of the past five years (WNI analysis)
- Unit: m
- (Top) January, 2020-2024
- (Middle) February, 2020-2024
- (Bottom) March, 2020-2024
North Atlantic, January 2026
Primary storm zones: Northeastern North Atlantic, Europe to Mediterranean Sea
Weather conditions:
- Stronger-than-average Azores High in the mid-latitude Atlantic
- Below-normal pressure in northeastern North Atlantic and North Sea
- Lower-than-average pressure across the Mediterranean Sea
- Frequent severe weather in northeastern regions
Shipping route impacts: Northern European routes and North Sea operations face more frequent weather disruptions than typical January conditions. Mediterranean shipping encounters above-average storm activity. Central Atlantic routes benefit from stable high-pressure conditions.
Monthly sea level pressure anomaly simulation for Jan. 2026 (JMA). ※Yellow indicates higher pressure, and blue indicates lower pressure compared with the normal year. Unit: hPa
North Atlantic, February 2026
Primary storm zones: Eastern North Atlantic, Mediterranean Sea
Weather conditions:
- Higher-than-normal pressure in the mid-latitudes of the North Atlantic
- Lower-than-normal pressure in the eastern North Atlantic
- More frequent storm systems in the eastern Atlantic
- Mediterranean storm activity remains above normal
Shipping route impacts: Eastern Atlantic routes face increased storm frequency. Mediterranean operations continue experiencing above-average weather disruptions. Mid-Atlantic routes benefit from stable high-pressure conditions.
Monthly sea level pressure anomaly simulation for Feb. 2026 (JMA). Unit: hPa
North Atlantic, March 2026
Primary storm zones: Eastern North Atlantic, Mediterranean Sea
Weather conditions:
- Azores High remains weaker than normal
- Persistent low pressure in the eastern North Atlantic
- Continued severe weather across eastern Atlantic and Mediterranean
- Storm systems more frequent than typical March patterns
Shipping route impacts: Eastern Atlantic and Mediterranean routes face elevated severe weather as winter patterns persist into early spring. European shipping lanes experience more frequent disruptions than normal. Storm activity remains widespread across eastern maritime corridors.
Monthly sea level pressure anomaly simulation for Feb. 2026 (JMA). Unit: hPa
