The International Maritime Organization (IMO), in coordination with United Nations agencies and regional partners, has launched a phased evacuation plan to rescue approximately 11,000 seafarers and hundreds of vessels stranded in the Gulf region. However, this plan has been abruptly suspended after a Singapore-flagged ship was attacked in the Strait of Hormuz. As the situation returns to instability, significant fluctuations are being observed in the outbound maritime traffic.
What the Data Reveals: Charting the Sudden Wave of Departures and Stoppage
Tracking data from commercial satellites and the Automatic Identification System (AIS)—collected and analyzed by Weathernews using AIS source data from MarineTraffic by Kpler—shows dramatic changes in shipping traffic volume in the Strait of Hormuz following the IMO's announcements.
From May through early June, outbound shipping traffic from the Persian Gulf, including along routes designated by Iran, remained limited. However, traffic volumes began to trend upward from June 17, coinciding with intensified ceasefire negotiations between the United States and Iran. Subsequently, following a UKMTO advisory issued on June 23, the number of vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz increased sharply from June 24. However, following the attack on the Singapore-flagged vessel, the AIS data shows a sharp drop in transit vessels on June 25 as the evacuation plan was paused.
Between June 1 and June 25, 2026, 245 vessels were recorded as outbound transits, traveling west to east.
An analysis of these 245 outbound vessels shows the traffic volume across major commercial vessel categories moving eastward prior to the suspension:
Bulk carriers: 53 vessels were recorded in the outbound flow.
General cargo vessels: 32 vessels were recorded heading outbound.
Tankers: 54 tankers—including 36 product tankers and 18 crude oil tankers—showed eastward movement.
Container ships: 30 vessels transited the outbound routes.
Other vessels: The remaining 76 vessels, including LNG carriers (2) and PCTCs (1), accounted for the rest of the outbound traffic.
AIS Analysis (June 1-June 25, 2026) by Weathernews Inc.; AIS Source Data: Marine Traffic by Kpler
Weathernews Maritime Forecaster’s 7-Day Outlook:
Northern Indian Ocean Region
Prevailing Southwest Monsoon conditions continue across the North Indian Ocean. From later this week through next week, the risk of significant strong winds and high waves remains low near the Strait of Hormuz. However, widespread southwesterly winds exceeding 20 knots will persist across the Arabian Sea.
These winds are expected to intensify further early next week, with strong winds reaching 25 to 30 knots across the central and northern Arabian Sea. Wave heights will also gradually trend upward. Along major shipping routes from the mouth of the Gulf of Oman to the west coast of India, rough seas are expected to reach 3 to 4 meters early next week, building to 4 to 5 meters by the latter half of the week.
Surface pressure, wind and wave patterns over the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, Northern India Ocean, valid 00:00UTC of June 28, on Weathernews SeaNavigator platform as of June 25, 2026
Surface pressure, wind and wave patterns over the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, Northern India Ocean, valid 00:00UTC of July 1, 2026, on Weathernews SeaNavigator platform as of June 25, 2026
Surface pressure, wind and wave patterns over the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, Northern India Ocean, valid 00:00UTC of July 4, 2026, on Weathernews SeaNavigator platform as of June 25, 2026
