Updated Season Outlook
The 2026 tropical storm and hurricane season continues to be driven by a dominant global climate signal: a strong El Niño event, which has the potential to develop into one of the strongest on record.
This climate pattern continues to pull the three basins in markedly different directions:
- North Atlantic: Strong suppression of convective activity across the Main Development Region (MDR) keeps overall annual formations below normal.
- Northeast Pacific: Formations from September onward will be near-normal to above normal, with the primary risk zone shifting westward.
- Central Pacific: Activity remains above normal, fueled by both local storm generation and systems tracking in from the east.
1. North Atlantic Outlook
Weathernews forecasts an annual total of 7 to 11 tropical storms or hurricanes in the North Atlantic—a season classified as below normal (normal: 14.4).
Monthly and annual TS/hurricane formations for the North Atlantic — 2026 WNI forecast vs. normal. May figures include both actuals and forecasts. Normal values compiled by WNI based on NOAA data.
The key reason is El Niño. As it continues, convection is suppressed across the southern tropical basin (Main Development Region / MDR), creating an unfavorable environment for storm development. The result is a season that is likely to fall on the quieter side of the historical range.
2. Northeast Pacific Outlook (~140°W)
The Northeast Pacific is forecast to see 14 to 17 tropical storms or hurricanes annually, keeping the overall season in the near-normal category (normal: 15.4).
Monthly and annual TS/hurricane formations for the Northeast Pacific (~140°W) — 2026 WNI forecast vs. normal. August figures include both actuals and forecasts. Normal values compiled by WNI based on NOAA data.
The most notable feature here is positional rather than numerical: as El Niño develops, the zone of enhanced convection shifts westward in September. This nudges the main development and risk areas away from their usual footprint—an important nuance for routing decisions even in an otherwise "average" year.
3. Central Pacific Outlook (140°W–180°W)
The Central Pacific is where El Niño's fingerprint shows up most clearly. Weathernews forecasts 3 to 4 formations this season—roughly 2 to 3 above normal (normal: 1.2)—making this an active year for a basin that is typically quiet. From September onward, formations are expected to be 1 to 2 (near to above normal).
Monthly and annual TS/hurricane formations for the Central Pacific (140°W–180°W) — 2026 WNI forecast vs. normal. August figures include both actuals and forecasts. Normal values compiled by WNI based on NOAA data.
Convective activity across the Central Pacific is enhanced throughout September and October under El Niño conditions. Tropical cyclone risk is elevated due to both local genesis within the basin and storms tracking in from the Northeast Pacific.
※ August figures include both observed and forecast values.
Analog Years & Model Insights
This year's setup—based on sea surface temperature anomalies and atmospheric circulation across the El Niño monitoring region (NOAA) and the Indian Ocean—closely resembles the seasons of 2023, 2018, 2015, 2009, 2002, and 1997, all years with comparable El Niño signatures.
Drawing on these analog years and Weathernews' proprietary AI statistical forecast:
1. North Atlantic
The WNI AI statistical forecast points to about 3.5 formations from September onward (about 4 below the normal of 8.0). Analog years suggest an average of 6.7 formations from September onward (about 1 below normal).
North Atlantic — AI statistical forecast and analog-year monthly formation trends.
2. Northeast Pacific
The AI statistical forecast indicates 5.3 formations from September onward (about 1 below normal), while analog years average 6.8 formations from September onward (about 1 above normal).
Northeast Pacific — AI statistical forecast and analog-year monthly formation trends.
3. Central Pacific
Analog years average 1.3 formations from September onward (about 1 above the normal of 0.6), reinforcing the above-normal outlook.
Central Pacific — analog-year monthly formation trends. (No AI statistical forecast is available for this basin.)
Note on the WNI AI Statistical Forecast: The WNI proprietary AI statistical forecast is generated by a machine-learning model trained on historical tropical convective activity. It is shown alongside analog-year trends—years with sea surface temperature anomalies and atmospheric circulation in the El Niño monitoring region (NOAA) and the Indian Ocean similar to this year's forecast (2023, 2018, 2015, 2009, 2002, and 1997). All values are compiled by WNI based on NOAA statistics; monthly averages may not sum to totals due to rounding.
Storm Tracks and Risk Areas
1. North Atlantic
In September, tropical cyclone risk is elevated near the East Coast of the United States, in the Gulf of Mexico, and in the Caribbean Sea. High tropical storm and hurricane risk continues through October.
Relative to normal, the primary North Atlantic risk zone tends to be displaced farther east than normal in September. In October, the risk around the Caribbean Sea is lower than normal.
Figure 1-1: Monthly (Sep-Nov) TS/hurricane track density based on analog years. Darker colors indicate areas with higher track density (Compiled by WNI using NOAA HURDAT2 data).
Figure 1-2: Monthly (Sep-Nov) TS/hurricane track density anomalies based on analog years. Warm (cool) colors indicate areas with higher (lower) density compared to normal (Compiled by WNI using NOAA HURDAT2 data).
2. Northeast & Central Pacific
High tropical storm and hurricane risk remains off the coast of Mexico through November. In September, the risk area immediately off the coast of Mexico is below normal, with the main threat area shifted farther west. In October and November off Mexico, risk tends to be higher than normal.
In September and October, tropical cyclone risk around Hawaii is elevated as storms both develop locally within the Central Pacific and track westward from the Northeast Pacific.
Figure 1-3: Monthly (Sep-Nov) TS/hurricane track density based on analog years. Darker colors indicate areas with higher track density (Compiled by WNI using NOAA HURDAT2 data).
Figure 1-4: Monthly (Sep-Nov) TS/hurricane track density anomalies based on analog years. Warm (cool) colors indicate areas with higher (lower) density compared to normal (Compiled by WNI using NOAA HURDAT2 data).
Forecasts from Each Organization
Comparison of 2026 North Atlantic / Northeast Pacific tropical storm & hurricane seasonal forecasts issued by major forecasting organizations.
