Hurricane Polo has weakened to a Category 3 hurricane but remains a powerful storm bearing down on the Baja California Peninsula, with landfall expected Monday evening. Hurricane Warnings are in effect for both coasts of Baja California Sur and a stretch of mainland Mexico, with conditions forecast to begin deteriorating Monday morning.
CURRENT STATUS
Based on the latest NHC Public Advisory analysis on September 28, 2026 03:00 UTC
- Location: 22.8°N, 114.0°W — approximately 420 km (260 mi) west of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico and 280 km (175 mi) southwest of Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico
- Intensity: Category 3 Hurricane
- Movement: North at 19 km/h (10 kt)
- Central pressure: 951 mb (951 hPa)
- Maximum sustained winds: 205 km/h (110 kt)
- Maximum gusts: 250 km/h (135 kt)
- Hurricane-force winds (64 kt) radius: up to 75 km (45 mi) from center
- Tropical-storm-force winds (34 kt) radius: up to 165 km (105 mi) from center
- Watches/Warnings: Hurricane Warning for the west and east coasts of Baja California Sur (Punta Abreojos to Santa Fe, and Loreto to Santa Rosalia) and mainland Mexico from Guaymas to Huatabampito; Hurricane Watches and Tropical Storm Warnings extend along adjoining stretches of Baja California Sur and mainland Sonora/Sinaloa
Weathernews Global Composite Satellite Imagery valid September 27, 2026 04:30 UTC to September 28, 2026 04:30 UTC
FORECAST TRACK SUMMARY
Polo is expected to turn northeast on Monday, carrying its core across the Baja California Peninsula Monday evening, then briefly track over the Gulf of California before a second landfall in northwestern mainland Mexico early Tuesday. Rapid weakening and dissipation over Mexico's interior terrain are expected by Tuesday night.
INTENSITY FORECAST
Little additional weakening is expected before Polo reaches Baja California Sur, where it is forecast to be at or near major hurricane strength at landfall. Interaction with the peninsula's terrain and increasing wind shear should weaken Polo further, though it is expected to remain a hurricane at its second landfall in mainland Mexico.
WIND PROBABILITY & HIGHLIGHTS
Loreto faces the highest risk in the table, with a roughly nine-in-ten chance of tropical-storm-force winds by Tuesday and about a one-in-four chance of hurricane-force winds. Guaymas also carries a high chance of tropical-storm-force winds — close to eight in ten by Tuesday — with a meaningful chance of hurricane-force winds as well.
IMPACTS & THREATS
Wind: Hurricane conditions are expected along the west coast of Baja California Sur by late Monday afternoon, spreading northward and eastward across the peninsula through Monday. Hurricane conditions are expected to reach mainland northwestern Mexico late Monday night into Tuesday.
Rainfall: Baja California Sur can expect 4 to 8 inches of rain, with isolated totals to 12 inches, while portions of Sonora face 4 to 6 inches, isolated to 8 inches — raising the risk of life-threatening flooding and mudslides in steep terrain.
Storm Surge: A storm surge is likely to produce significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds, accompanied near the coast by large and destructive waves — a hazard for vessels and port operations along the affected shorelines.
Swells & Surf: Swells generated by Polo continue to affect the coasts of southwestern Mexico, west-central Mexico, and Baja California Sur, producing life-threatening surf, dangerous rip currents, and coastal flooding over the next couple of days. Mariners and coastal operators in these areas should expect hazardous sea conditions and monitor local weather office products.
OPERATIONAL PORT FORECASTS
■ GUAYMAS, Sonora, Mexico
■ SAN MARCOS, Baja California Sur, Mexico
Weathernews Inc. assumes no liability for navigational decisions, losses, or damages resulting from reliance on this general overview.
While official observations guide the general threat assessment, highly detailed, proprietary routing and port forecasts are essential for safe navigation. Weathernews services provide customers with 24/7 localized data to ensure your vessels remain safe and well-informed. Please consult our dedicated services for the most up-to-date, detailed predictions for your specific routes and operations.
Note on the storm's name: "Polo" is drawn from the 2026 Eastern North Pacific tropical cyclone name list, the sixteenth name in the season's sequence. Eastern North Pacific tropical cyclone names are pre-selected from twenty four rotating lists. To learn more about how storms are named, please visit the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) website.
