Tropical Storm No. 29 (Koguma) is tracking westward across the open waters of the central Northwest Pacific and is forecast to undergo steady intensification into a "very strong" typhoon as it steers west-northwestward toward the Ogasawara archipelago over the coming days.
CURRENT STATUS
Based on the latest JMA observations on October 7, 2026 04:20 UTC
- Location: 15.1°N, 162.8°E — approximately 620 km southwest of Wake Island
- Classification: Severe Tropical Storm (STS)
- Movement: West at 9 kt (15 km/h)
- Central pressure: 990 hPa
- Maximum sustained winds: 55 kt (102km/h)
- Maximum gusts: 80 kt (148 km/h)
- ≥30-kt wind area: 45 km (25 NM)
- ≥50-kt wind area: 330 km (180 NM) to the northwest, 280 km (150 NM) to the southeast
Weathernews Global Composite Satellite Imagery valid October 6, 2026 04:30 UTC to October 7, 2026 04:30 UTC
FORECAST TRACK SUMMARY
Tropical Storm No. 29 (Koguma) is projected to track northwestward to west-northwestward across the open central Northwest Pacific through the end of the week. The tropical storm is forecast to undergo steady intensification into a "very strong" typhoon as it navigates south of Minamitorishima, approaching the eastern waters of the Ogasawara archipelago by 12 October.
INTENSITY FORECAST
Tropical Storm No. 29 (Koguma) is projected to intensify significantly over warm open ocean waters. The tropical storm is expected to attain Typhoon (TY) intensity by 03:00 UTC on 8 October as central pressure deepens to 970 hPa, with sustained winds strengthening to 70 kt (130 km/h) and gusts to 100 kt (185 km/h).
Continued deepening will bring central barometric pressure down to 955 hPa by 9 October and 950 hPa by 00:00 UTC on 10 October. Over the weekend, Koguma is forecast to attain "very strong" typhoon intensity with peak sustained winds of 85 kt (157 km/h) and maximum gusts up to 120 kt (220 km/h). The system is expected to maintain intense typhoon status through at least 12 October, packing sustained winds of 80 kt (148 km/h) with a central pressure of 955 hPa.
IMPACTS & THREATS
Traversing the open Central and Western Pacific before approaching the eastern maritime sector of the Ogasawara Islands, Tropical Storm No. 29 (Koguma) presents expanding marine hazards across key trans-Pacific shipping corridors from 8 through 12 October.
Strong Winds: Storm-force winds will expand substantially around the core as the tropical storm matures. Koguma currently sustains gale-force winds (≥30 kt) up to 330 km (180 NM) northwest and 280 km (150 NM) southeast of the center, with a 50-kt storm core spanning 45 km (25 NM). A storm warning area (winds ≥50 kt) is forecast to be established by 8 October across a 180 km (97 NM ) radius, expanding to 370 km (200 NM ) on 10 October and widening up to 570 km (310 NM) by 12 October. Core sustained winds will reach 70 to 85 kt (130 to 157 km/h) during this period.
Violent Gusts: Destructive wind gusts pose critical hazards to vessels along its track. Maximum gusts near the center are currently reaching 80 kt (148 km/h). Peak gusts are projected to reach 100 kt (185 km/h) on 8 October, escalating to 115 to 120 kt (215 to 220 km/h) from 9 through 11 October, and remaining severe around 115 kt (215 km/h) through 12 October.
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Note on the storm's name:"Koguma" is drawn from the Western North Pacific and South China Sea tropical cyclone name list, contributed by Japan, and refers to the constellation Ursa Minor (the Little Bear). The WMO and the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee adopt these names sequentially to make tracking specific storms straightforward and to quickly communicate warnings. To learn more about how storms are named, please visit the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) website.
