Tropical Storm Simon is forecast to intensify rapidly into a major hurricane and approach Mexico's west-central coast this weekend, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). At 0300 UTC Thursday (9 PM CST Wednesday), Simon had maximum sustained winds of 45 kt (50 mph) and a minimum central pressure of 1002 mb (1002 hPa). It was moving west-northwest at 6 kt (7 mph). Flooding rain and dangerous surf are the main early threats, with damaging wind and storm surge possible later.
CURRENT STATUS
Based on the latest NHC Public Advisory analysis on October 10, 2026 03:00 UTC
- Location: 15.6°N, 102.5°W, about 270 km (165 mi) south of Lázaro Cárdenas, Mexico, and 425 km (265 mi) south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico
- Intensity: Tropical storm
- Movement: West-northwest at 11 km/h (6 kt / 7 mph)
- Central pressure: 1002 mb (1002 hPa)
- Maximum sustained winds: 85 km/h (45 kt / 50 mph)
- Maximum gusts: 102 km/h (55 kt / 63 mph)
- Tropical-storm-force winds (34 kt) radius: up to 110 km (70 mi / 60 nm) from center
Weathernews Global Composite Satellite Imagery valid October 7, 2026 03:30 UTC to October 8, 2026 03:30 UTC
FORECAST TRACK SUMMARY
Simon is forecast to continue west-northwest through Thursday, then turn northwest and north on Friday while staying south of Mexico. The storm is expected to approach the west-central coast on Saturday and then track nearly parallel to it into early next week. NHC forecasts Simon to move inland over northwestern Mexico by early Tuesday (UTC).
INTENSITY FORECAST
Expect Simon to become a hurricane by Thursday night and a major hurricane by late Friday or early Saturday. Peak winds are forecast near 110 kt (125 mph) over the weekend, supported by very favorable environmental conditions. Weakening is expected as the storm nears northwestern Mexico early next week.
WIND PROBABILITY & HIGHLIGHTS
Manzanillo has a 68% chance of tropical-storm-force winds (34 kt / 39 mph) over the next five days, most likely during the period 0000 UTC Saturday to 0000 UTC Sunday. Barra de Navidad (65%), San Blas (64%) and Puerto Vallarta (58%) also face high odds. Hurricane-force winds (64 kt / 74 mph) carry a 16% chance at Manzanillo and 12–13% at Barra de Navidad, San Blas and Islas Marías.
IMPACTS & THREATS
Rain: Totals of 8 to 12 inches are expected over parts of southwestern Mexico through Sunday. Isolated totals of 15 to 25 inches are possible across Colima and Michoacán, with a risk of life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in steep terrain.
Swells: Swells will affect the southwestern and west-central coast of Mexico through the weekend. They are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.
Wind and storm surge: Dangerous wind and storm surge are possible along portions of Mexico's west-central coast from the weekend into early next week. NHC forecasts Simon to approach that coast as a major hurricane on Saturday.
OPERATIONAL PORT FORECASTS
■ ACAPULCO, Guerrero, Mexico
■ LAZARO CARDENAS, Michoacán, Mexico
■ MANZANILLO, Colima, Mexico
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While official observations guide the general threat assessment, highly detailed, proprietary routing and port forecasts are essential for safe navigation. Weathernews services provide customers with 24/7 localized data to ensure your vessels remain safe and well-informed. Please consult our dedicated services for the most up-to-date, detailed predictions for your specific routes and operations.
Note on the storm's name: "Simon" is drawn from the 2026 Eastern North Pacific tropical cyclone name list, the eighteenth name in the season's sequence. Eastern North Pacific tropical cyclone names are pre-selected from twenty four rotating lists. To learn more about how storms are named, please visit the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) website.
