Hurricane Rachel, a Category 1 storm about 840 miles west of the southern tip of Baja California, has weakened slightly. NHC forecasts it to turn northeast later this week toward northern Baja California and the southwestern U.S. Rachel has maximum sustained winds of 65 kt (75 mph) and a central pressure of 982 mb (982 hPa), moving west-northwest at 6 kt (7 mph). It is expected to approach the coast at tropical storm strength over the weekend.
CURRENT STATUS
Based on the latest NHC Public Advisory analysis on October 8, 2026 03:00 UTC
- Location: 21.4°N, 122.9°W — approximately 1,350 km (840 mi) west of the southern tip of Baja California, Mexico
- Intensity: Category 1 Hurricane
- Movement: West-northwest at 11 km/h (6 kt)
- Central pressure: 982 mb (982 hPa)
- Maximum sustained winds: 120 km/h (65 kt)
- Maximum gusts: 150 km/h (80 kt)
- Hurricane-force winds (64 kt) radius: up to 55 km (35 mi) from center
- Tropical-storm-force winds (34 kt) radius: up to 205 km (125 mi) from center
Weathernews Global Composite Satellite Imagery valid October 7, 2026 03:30 UTC to October 8, 2026 03:30 UTC
FORECAST TRACK SUMMARY
Rachel is expected to continue west-northwest for the next day or so, then slow down and make a sharp turn to the northeast by the end of the week. NHC forecasts it to accelerate toward extreme northern Baja California and Southern California over the weekend. Rachel is forecast to become post-tropical as it moves inland, and to dissipate by Tuesday UTC.
INTENSITY FORECAST
Expect gradual weakening, with Rachel falling below hurricane strength by midday Thursday UTC and holding near 45 kt (50 mph) through the weekend. The storm is moving over cooler waters and drier air, and increasing wind shear is expected to erode it further.
WIND PROBABILITY & HIGHLIGHTS
There is a 34% chance of tropical-storm-force winds (34 kt / 39 mph) near 25°N, 120°W during the period 0000 UTC Saturday to 0000 UTC Sunday, with a 2% chance of hurricane-force winds (64 kt / 74 mph). Through 0000 UTC Monday, the chance of tropical-storm-force winds is 20% at Isla Guadalupe, 9% at Ensenada and 4% at San Diego.
IMPACTS & THREATS
Rachel is forecast to bring strong winds and coastal flooding to extreme northern Baja California and Southern California over the weekend. Gusty winds could spread across the interior Southwest U.S. into early next week. Moisture from Rachel will spread over the Southwest U.S. and northern Baja California, raising the threat of flash and urban flooding. Swells will build along the Southern California and northern Baja California coasts through the weekend, causing life-threatening surf and rip currents.
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While official observations guide the general threat assessment, highly detailed, proprietary routing and port forecasts are essential for safe navigation. Weathernews services provide customers with 24/7 localized data to ensure your vessels remain safe and well-informed. Please consult our dedicated services for the most up-to-date, detailed predictions for your specific routes and operations.
Note on the storm's name: "Rachel" is drawn from the 2026 Eastern North Pacific tropical cyclone name list, the seventeenth name in the season's sequence. Eastern North Pacific tropical cyclone names are pre-selected from twenty four rotating lists. To learn more about how storms are named, please visit the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) website.
