Typhoon No. 29 (Koguma) continues to intensify over the open waters of the central Northwest Pacific, projected to reach "very strong" typhoon intensity over the weekend as it tracks toward waters east of the Ogasawara archipelago.
CURRENT STATUS
Based on the latest JMA observations on October 9, 2026 04:05 UTC
- Location: 18.8°N, 156.1°E — approximately 650 km southwest of Minamitorishima
- Classification: Typhoon (TY)
- Movement: West-northwest at 11 kt (20 km/h)
- Central pressure: 990 hPa
- Maximum sustained winds: 75 kt (140 km/h)
- Maximum gusts: 105 kt (195 km/h)
- ≥30-kt wind area: 390 km (210 NM) to the north, 280 km (150 NM) to the south
- ≥50-kt wind area: 85 km (45 NM)
Weathernews Global Composite Satellite Imagery valid October 8, 2026 04:30 UTC to October 9, 2026 04:30 UTC
FORECAST TRACK SUMMARY
Typhoon No. 29 (Koguma) is tracking west-northwestward south of Minamitorishima and is forecast to attain "very strong" typhoon intensity over October 10 and October 11. The typhoon is projected to decelerate as it curves northwestward toward waters east of the Ogasawara archipelago through 12 October, before recurving north-northeastward into the open North Pacific early next week.
INTENSITY FORECAST
Typhoon No. 29 (Koguma) is forecast to intensify further over the next 24 to 48 hours. Central pressure is projected to drop to 960 hPa by late October 9 with sustained winds reaching 80 kt (150 km/h).
By early October 10, Typhoon Koguma is expected to attain "very strong" typhoon status with a central pressure of 955 hPa, packing maximum sustained winds of 85 kt (157 km/h) and gusts up to 120 kt (220 km/h). The cyclone is forecast to maintain very strong intensity through 11 October, before beginning a gradual weakening trend on 12 October as it recurves north-northeastward and transitions toward a Severe Tropical Storm over cooler waters on 14 October.
IMPACTS & THREATS
Advancing west-northwestward across the central Pacific before recurving east of the Ogasawara Islands, Typhoon No. 29 (Koguma) presents expanding hazards for maritime traffic across key trans-Pacific shipping routes.
Strong Winds: Storm-force winds will widen significantly as the typhoon matures. Koguma currently sustains 50-kt storm-force winds within 45 NM (85 km) of its center, with gale-force winds (≥30 kt) extending 210 NM (390 km) to the north and 150 NM (280 km) to the south. A storm warning area (winds ≥50 kt) is forecast to expand to 85 NM (155 km) by late October 9, reaching 105 NM (190 km) on Saturday and expanding broadly up to 260 NM (480 km) east and 250 NM (460 km) west by 13 October. Sustained winds near the center will peak at 85 kt (157 km/h) over October 10 and October 11.
Violent Gusts: Severe and destructive gusts pose severe hazards along commercial vessel routes. Maximum gusts near the center are currently reaching 105 kt (195 km/h). Peak gusts are projected to intensify to 115 kt (215 km/h) late October 9, reaching 120 kt (220 km/h) through October 10 and October 11, before gradually easing to 100 kt (185 km/h) on 13 October.
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Note on the storm's name:"Koguma" is drawn from the Western North Pacific and South China Sea tropical cyclone name list, contributed by Japan, and refers to the constellation Ursa Minor (the Little Bear). The WMO and the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee adopt these names sequentially to make tracking specific storms straightforward and to quickly communicate warnings. To learn more about how storms are named, please visit the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) website.
