Hurricane Simon, a Category 2 storm, is moving very slowly off Mexico's west-central coast, and hurricane conditions are likely on Las Islas Marías beginning Tuesday, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). At 0300 UTC Tuesday (8 PM MST Monday), Simon had weakened to maximum sustained winds of 85 kt (100 mph). NHC says it could approach the coast of west-central Mexico later this week. Flooding rain and dangerous surf are the main threats along the coast.
CURRENT STATUS
Based on the latest NHC Public Advisory analysis on October 13, 2026 03:00 UTC
- Location: 20.4°N, 107.0°W, about 135 km (85 mi) west of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico, and 315 km (195 mi) south of Mazatlán, Mexico
- Intensity: Category 2 hurricane
- Movement: West-northwest at 6 km/h (3 kt / 3 mph)
- Central pressure: 969 mb (969 hPa)
- Maximum sustained winds: 155 km/h (85 kt / 100 mph)
- Maximum gusts: 195 km/h (105 kt / 121 mph)
- Hurricane-force winds (64 kt) radius: up to 20 km (10 mi / 10 nm) from center
- Tropical-storm-force winds (34 kt) radius: up to 75 km (45 mi / 40 nm) from center
- Hurricane Warning: Las Islas Marías
- Hurricane Watch: North of Escuinapa to Bahía Tempehuaya
- Tropical Storm Watch: Cabo Corrientes to Escuinapa. This replaced the earlier Hurricane Watch for that stretch.
Weathernews Global Composite Satellite Imagery valid October 12, 2026 02:30 UTC to October 13, 2026 02:30 UTC
FORECAST TRACK SUMMARY
Simon is forecast to turn northwest tonight and move slowly in that direction for the next couple of days, passing close to Las Islas Marías before turning north. NHC forecasts the storm to approach the west-central coast late this week and weaken rapidly after moving inland by Sunday (UTC). Confidence in the track is low, and a stall or an earlier turn toward land is possible.
INTENSITY FORECAST
Expect Simon to weaken over the next day or so but remain a hurricane through midweek. Gradual re-strengthening is forecast later this week over warm water and in a favorable environment, though a stall could limit it.
WIND PROBABILITY & HIGHLIGHTS
Mazatlán has a 33% chance of tropical-storm-force winds (34 kt / 39 mph) over the next five days, most likely beginning during the period 0000 UTC Thursday to 0000 UTC Friday. Las Islas Marías (16%), Culiacán (12%), San José del Cabo (11%) and Cabo San Lucas (10%) have lower odds. Hurricane-force winds (64 kt / 74 mph) carry a 2% chance at Mazatlán and 1% at Las Islas Marías.
IMPACTS & THREATS
Rain: Totals of 5 to 10 inches are expected across coastal west-central Mexico, with isolated amounts up to 15 inches in Sinaloa by Thursday. This will cause life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in steep terrain.
Swells: Swells will affect the southwestern and west-central coasts over the next few days. They are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.
Wind and storm surge: Hurricane conditions are likely on Las Islas Marías beginning Tuesday, and possible in the Hurricane Watch area on Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area Tuesday and Wednesday. Dangerous storm surge with large, destructive waves is possible near Las Islas Marías.
OPERATIONAL PORT FORECASTS
■ MANZANILLO, Colima, Mexico
■ MAZATLAN, Sinaloa, Mexico
Weathernews Inc. assumes no liability for navigational decisions, losses, or damages resulting from reliance on this general overview.
While official observations guide the general threat assessment, highly detailed, proprietary routing and port forecasts are essential for safe navigation. Weathernews services provide customers with 24/7 localized data to ensure your vessels remain safe and well-informed. Please consult our dedicated services for the most up-to-date, detailed predictions for your specific routes and operations.
Note on the storm's name: "Simon" is drawn from the 2026 Eastern North Pacific tropical cyclone name list, the eighteenth name in the season's sequence. Eastern North Pacific tropical cyclone names are pre-selected from twenty four rotating lists. To learn more about how storms are named, please visit the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) website.
