Cyclonic Storm Arnab (02B) (pronounced "Ornab") formed over the east central Bay of Bengal on 26 October. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) / RSMC Tropical Cyclones New Delhi forecasts it will become a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm and make landfall over the Andhra Pradesh and Yanam coasts around 0600 UTC (1130 IST) on 28 October. IMD has issued a Red Message cyclone warning for Andhra Pradesh and adjoining south Odisha.
CURRENT STATUS
Based on the latest IMD bulletins on October 26, 2026, 04:30 UTC
- Location: 15.4°N / 88.9°E, about 650 km east-southeast of Visakhapatnam and 610 km southeast of Gopalpur
- Intensity: Cyclonic Storm (IMD scale)
- Movement: West-northwestward at about 15 km/h (8 kt)
- Central pressure: 1000 hPa
- Maximum sustained winds: 35 kt (65 km/h) gusting to 45 kt (83 km/h)
Weathernews Global Composite Satellite Imagery valid October 23, 2026 03:30 UTC to October 26, 2026 03:30 UTC
FORECAST TRACK SUMMARY
Arnab is forecast to move west-northwestward across the Bay of Bengal, then turn northwestward toward the Andhra Pradesh coast. IMD expects landfall between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam, close to Yanam. After landfall the system is forecast to turn nearly northward into Chhattisgarh and northern India.
Models disagree on landfall timing, which could fall anywhere between 1800 UTC on 27 October and 1800 UTC on 28 October.
INTENSITY FORECAST
Arnab is forecast to become a Severe Cyclonic Storm by about 1800 UTC on 26 October and a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm by 1200 UTC on 27 October. IMD cites sea surface temperatures near 30°C, strong poleward outflow, and a favorable Madden-Julian Oscillation phase. Peak winds at landfall are forecast at 115–125 km/h gusting to 140 km/h (62–68 kt gusting 76 kt). Dry air may cause slight weakening just before landfall. After landfall, the system is forecast to weaken rapidly, falling to a Deep Depression by 29 October. Models disagree on peak intensity, giving a range of 50–70 kt. IMD rates confidence in the forecast track and intensity as Moderate to High.
IMPACTS & THREATS
A storm surge of 1.0–1.5 m above astronomical tide is expected to flood low-lying coastal areas of Andhra Pradesh at landfall. IMD expects the highest surge near East Godavari (Kakinada) and Yanam. Extremely heavy rainfall is likely at isolated places across Andhra Pradesh on 27–28 October, then across Odisha, eastern Telangana, and southern Chhattisgarh on 28 October. Heavy rain is forecast to spread into northern Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Bihar, and East Uttar Pradesh through 30 October.
Gale-force winds of 90–100 km/h gusting to 110 km/h are expected along the coast of Andhra Pradesh by the evening of 27 October (IST). They are forecast to reach 115–125 km/h gusting to 140 km/h by the morning of 28 October. Sea conditions over the west central Bay of Bengal are forecast to become "Phenomenal" (wave heights of 14 m or more) on 28 October. IMD advises fishermen not to venture into the west central, northwest, and southwest Bay of Bengal from 26 to 28 October. It also advises against fishing along and off the Andhra Pradesh and Odisha coasts from 27 October, and recommends total suspension of offshore and onshore operations. IMD warns of extensive damage to kutcha (non-masonry) houses and crops, uprooted power poles, and major rail disruption in coastal Andhra Pradesh.
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Note on system designation: The name 'Arnab' was contributed by Bangladesh and is commonly associated with the Bengali word for the ocean or sea. The WMO and the ESCAP/WMO Panel on Tropical Cyclones adopt these names sequentially to make tracking specific storms straightforward and to quickly communicate warnings. To learn more about how storms are named, please visit the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) website.
