North Atlantic Storm Trend Outlook (November 2026 – January 2027)
Weathernews' expert meteorologists have analyzed pressure patterns across the North Atlantic, providing insights into expected rough weather for the coming months. This outlook aims to inform operators about potential weather challenges this winter.
Summary
November 2026
- Pressure is lower than average from south of Greenland to the vicinity of Iceland and the northern North Atlantic.
- Low-pressure systems are likely to intensify as they move through the northern North Atlantic.
- Pressure in the central North Atlantic is near or slightly above average, so the Azores High is likely to be of average or greater-than-average strength.
- Mediterranean pressure is near average, so the frequency of severe weather is expected to be around the seasonal norm.
Fig. 1 Monthly sea level pressure anomaly simulation for Nov. 2026 (JMA) ※Yellow indicates higher pressure, and blue indicates lower pressure compared with the normal year. Unit: hPa
Industry Insights: The risk of severe weather is elevated in the northern North Atlantic, while the Mediterranean is expected to stay in line with normal conditions.
December 2026
- Pressure is lower than average from the East Coast of North America across the western North Atlantic.
- Pressure is higher than average from the central North Atlantic (including the Azores and the waters off the Iberian Peninsula) to the west coast of Europe.
- The Azores High is projected to be stronger than usual, so low-pressure systems are likely to follow more northerly paths.
- Higher-than-average pressure over the Mediterranean points to fewer severe-weather events there than is typical.
Fig. 2 Monthly sea level pressure anomaly simulation for Dec. 2026 (JMA) Unit: hPa
Industry Insights: Rough weather is most likely in the western North Atlantic, off the US East Coast. Severe weather is less likely across the central-to-eastern North Atlantic, along the west coast of Europe and in the Mediterranean.
January 2027
- Pressure is lower than average from the East Coast of North America to the waters off Newfoundland and across the western North Atlantic.
- Pressure is higher than average south of Greenland.
- The Azores High is expected to extend strongly eastward, raising pressure around the Iberian Peninsula and the Mediterranean.
Fig. 3 Monthly sea level pressure anomaly simulation for Jan. 2027 (JMA) Unit: hPa
Industry Insights: Severe weather is expected to be more frequent in the western North Atlantic, from the US East Coast to Newfoundland. Iberia and the Mediterranean are forecast to see it less often than usual.
Normal Year Conditions in North Atlantic
Fig. 4 The mean significant wave height of the past five years (WNI analysis) Unit: m (Left) November, 2020-2025 / (Middle) December, 2020-2025 / (Right) January, 2021-2026
